후쿠시마 원전 사고 이후 한·일 간 수산물 교역의 변화

A Study on the Change of Trade Patterns in Fish and Fishery Products between Korea and Japan after Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

Purpose This paper investigates how the Fukushima nuclear disaster has influenced on trade patterns in fish and fishery products between Korea and Japan. Design/Methodology/Approach We used panel data consisting of 27 groups in Fish and Fishery Products for the periods from 2001 to 2016. The data was analyzed using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood regression technique. In the first analysis;we divided the data into two periods: 2001-2010 and 2011-2016;and compared the estimation results. In the second analysis;using the entire period of data;we additionally used the Fukushima dummy interaction terms;which are added as forms of multiplication of Fukushima dummy variable and independent variables. Findings Empirical results of the first analysis show that for the period after Fukushima nuclear accident;the effect of exchange rate on fish and fishery product exports and imports between Korea and Japan is not statistically significant unlike the period before the accident. In the second analysis;we have found that Fukushima nuclear accident has had negative impacts on not only the import level but also the marginal effects of both Korea’s expenditure and Japan’s production on Korea’s imports in fish and fishery Products. Research Implications This study is the first economic empirical research in Korea’s trade literature;which investigates the economic effects of Fukushima Nuclear Disaster on trade patterns between Korea and Japan in fish and fishery Products. Moreover;PPML technique was used in the Korea’s trade literature dealing with exports and imports in fish and fishery products.