해상교통류 시뮬레이션에 의한 해상교통안전관리평가에 관한 연구

A Study on Assessment of Vessel Traffic Safety Management by Marine Traffic Flow Simulation

Vessel traffic safety management means the managerial technical measures for improving the marine traffic safety in general terms. The main flow of vessel traffic safety management is that: 1) Traffic Survey, 2) Replay by Marine Traffic Flow Simulation, 3) Quantitative Assessment, 4) Policy Alternatives, 5) Prediction·Verification. In the management of vessel traffic safety, it is most important to establish assessment models that can numerically estimate the current safety level and quantitatively predict the correlation between the measures to be taken and the improvement of safety and the reduction of ship handling difficulties imposed on mariners. In this paper, the replay model for traffic flow simulation was made using marine traffic survey data, and the present traffic situation became replay in the computer. An attempt was made to rate the current safety of ports and waterways by applying the Environmental Stress model. And, as a countermeasure for traffic management, by taking up the promotion of total traffic congestion in early morning rush hour, the correlation between traffic control rate and the reduction in ship handling difficulties imposed on mariners was predicted quantitatively.