중국 농촌인구의 노령화가 농업생산에 미치는 영향 연구

A Study on the Impact of Aging of Rural Population in China on Agricultural Production

This paper studies the relationship between rural aging and agricultural production, and the negative or positive effects of rural population aging on labor input, labor production efficiency, family management organization ability, old-age crowding out effect, promoting land circulation, industrial structure upgrading, etc. In this part, according to Solow growth model, the influence model of rural population aging on agricultural production is established by using Cobb and Glass function, and the characteristic facts of agricultural output in China since 1990 are quantitatively measured and the influence degree of related elements is analyzed. The results show that the relative surplus of China’s agricultural labor force from 1990 to 2006, the increase of the proportion of the rural elderly population and the transfer of labor force have a significant negative effect on agricultural output after 2006, especially since 2006, the contribution degree and contribution rate of labor input to agricultural output are negative. It is estimated that the aging of rural population and labor force transfer in 2011-2027 will reduce the input of agricultural labor force by about 1.54 percentage pointsper year and drop down 0.77 percentage points to the growth rate of agricultural output. Based on the above quantitative analysis and calculation, the economic density of the rural elderly population will increase from 2023, which proves that the rural old-age pension must be subsidized externally. Otherwise, the economic support level of the rural elderly population will decrease from about 2023.