일반화된 성향점수 접근법을 활용한 영농자녀 수증농지 증여세 감면제도의 정책효과 분석

Estimating the Effects of Donation Tax Reduction on Farmland Using a Generalized Propensity Approach

Since the population inflow to rural areas has been decreasing, farming successions are facing a serious difficulty. In response to this, the Korean government has implemented a gift tax reduction for farmers as a counter-measure. However, there has been not much research on the policy effects on gift tax reduction on farmland. In this study, we analyzed the effects of the gift tax reduction policy using a generalized propensity score approach. The generalized propensity score approach has the advantage of being able to consider the level of treatment, unlike a standard propensity score matching. We found that this policy has the positive effects on increasing the inflow of farmers, reducing the average age of farmers, and reducing the Gini coefficient for farmland in each region (which reflects an increase in equity of farmland). Specifically, from 2016 to 2019, we found that the increasing effect of 10.3 households by each region, the decreasing effect of 0.12 years old of farmers, and the reducing effect of the Gini coefficient of 0.05 in each region.