위안화 국제화를 고려한 한·중 FTA 금융서비스 협상 전략에 관한 연구

A Study on the Financial Service Negotiations in the Korean-Chinese Free-Trade Agreement (FTA) with Respect to RMB Internationalization

Purpose – This paper analyzes the influence of the RMB internationalization on the KRW/dollar exchange rate using an autoregressive distributed lag model. Comparing the parameter estimators from the sample period before and after the global financial crisis, we found that the RMB/dollar exchange rate has increasingly become more influential on the KRW/dollar exchange rate. Moreover, for the past several years, the Chinese government has actively utilized the financial service FTA negotiation as a measure for the RMB internationalization. This paper simultaneously considers RMB internationalization and financial service negotiations in the Korean- Chinese FTA. The purpose of this paper is to explicitly suggest a direction for the financial service negotiations in the Korean- Chinese FTA considering the effects of RMB internationalization. Research design, data, and methodology – The research plan of this paper has two parts. First, for an empirical study, this paper uses the daily exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the ASEAN5, Taiwan, and Korea. By using an autoregressive distributed lag model, this paper studies the influence of the change in the RMB/dollar exchange rate on changes in the local currency/dollar exchange rate in seven economies neighboring China. Our sample periods are 06/2005 – 07/2008 and 06/2010 –02/2013. During these periods, China was under the multi-currency basket system. We exempted the period of 08/2008 – 05/2010 from the analysis because there was nearly no RMB/dollar exchange rate fluctuation during those months. Second, after analyzing the recent financial service liberalizations and deregulations in China, we recommend a direction for the financial service negotiations in the Korean-Chinese FTA. In the past several years, the main Chinese financial policy agenda has surrounded the RMB internationalization. Therefore, it is crucial to understand this in the search for strategies for