How Vulnerable is Indonesia’s Financial System Stability to External Shock?
- Nika Pranata Nurzanah
- The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)
- Vol. 4 No.2
- 등재여부 : KCI등재
- 5 - 17 (13 pages)
The main objective of the study is to measure the vulnerability of Indonesia s financial system stability in response to external shocks, including from regional economies namely three biggest Indonesia major trading partners (China, the U.S and Japan) and other external factors (oil price and the federal funds rate). Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Orthogonalized Impulse Response Function (OIRF) with quarterly data over the period Q4 2002 - Q1 2016, results confirm that, 1) oil price response has the largest effect to Indonesia financial stability system and the effect period is the longest compared to others, represented by NPL and IHSG; 2) among those three economies, only China’s economic growth has significantly positive effect to Indonesia financial stability system. Based on the findings it is better for the authorities to: 1) Diversify international trade commodities by decreasing share of oil, gas, and mining export and boosting other potential sectors such as manufacture, and fisheries; 2) Ensure the survival of Indonesia large coal exporter companies without neglecting burden of national budget; and 3) Create buffer for demand shock from specific countries by diversifying and increasing share of trading from other countries particularly from ASEAN member states.
2. Research Objectives
3. Literature Review
4. Data and Research Methods
5. Analysis Based on Empirical Results
6. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations