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KCI등재 학술저널

Evaluating the Investment in the Malaysian Construction Sector in the Long-run Using the Modified Internal Rate of Return: A Markov Chain Approach

In capital budgeting practices;investment project evaluations based on the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) represent the traditional evaluation techniques. Compared with the traditional methods;the modified internal rate of return (MIRR) gives the opportunity to evaluate an investment in certain projet;while taking the changes in cash flows over time and issuing shares such as dividing shares;bonuses;and dividend for each end of the investment year into account. Therefore;this study aims to evaluate an investment in the Malaysian construction sector utilizing financial data for 39 public listed companies operating in the Malaysian construction sector over the period from Jan 1;2007;to December 30;2018;based on the MIRR method. Stochastic was studied in this study to estimate the estimated probability by applying the Markov chain model to the MIRR method where the transition matrix has two possible movements of either Good (G) or Bad (B). it is found that the long-run probability of getting a good investment is higher than the probability of getting a bad investment in the long-run;where were the probabilities of good and bad are 0.5119;0.4881;respectively. Hence;investment in the Malaysian construction sector is recommended.

1. Introduction

2. Methodology

3. Data Source

4. Results and Discussion

5. Conclusion

References

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