A Grey Correlation Analysis Method for Relationship of the Overseas M&A and Business Growth of Commercial Banks

While the Chinese banks have started the impact of foreign banks, overseas merger and acquisition of commercial banks also have emerged a way of capital transnational movement. At the same time, rising pressure on foreign exchange reserves and appreciation of the renminbi has prompted Chinese banks to go abroad and diversify their risks. The financial crisis of 2008 has caused the continued turbulence of the major financial markets around the world, and the valuation of foreign financial institutions has been drastically shrinking, providing opportunities for Chinese banks to carry out overseas M&A. Based on the overseas M&A status of Chinese commercial banks, this paper sums up the characteristics of the overseas M&A. Then taking a series of overseas M&A conducted by ICBC from 2006 to 2011 as an example, it analyzes the relationship between M&A and performance growth using grey incidence model. The test shows: there is a positive correlation between both overseas M&A and interest rate differential with performance growth of ICBC, and overseas M&A transactions role in promoting the performance growth is significantly higher than the interest rate differential.