국내환경역학조사 및 위해성평가에서 나타나는 불확실성의 종류와 대응방안 연구

Analysis of Uncertainty and Variability in Environmental Epidemiology and Health Risk Assessment Studies in Korea

To describe characteristics of uncertainty/variability in some environmental epidemiological and health risk assessment studies in Korea, reference review was performed with each three categories of uncertainty and variability concepts. Types of uncertainty/variability of 31 selected subject references were classified with related tools available to address including probabilistic simulation, correlation and regression analysis, additional measurements, scenario modeling, standardization, expert judgment, non-linear and multi-media modeling. Major sources of uncertainty have been originated from 1) measurement of exposure and health effect, 2) insufficient discussion of study design and methodology, 3) incomplete description of subject markers. Identified factors related to variability have been 1) yearly and spatial variation, 2) variation of measurement state (temperature, humidity etc.), 3) variation from regional environment specificity. Countermeasures concerning these uncertainty are 1) more detailed instruction of measurement information, 2) exact discussion on applied tools and methodology, 3) extended reference review for studied materials and markers. Over 50% of variability are coped with 1) showing and comparing statistics like standard deviation for yearly (time) and spatial variation, 2) notifying changes of analysis condition through time and standardized analysis method, 3) statistics of regional variability between sampling districts. Further research is required to propose more illustrative means to understand uncertainty/variability for decision makers and general public.