STIRPAT과 EKC 모형을 이용한 중국의 무역과 CO2 배출량의 관계 분석

The Relationship between China’s Trade and CO2 Emissions Using STIRPAT and EKC Models

Purpose - The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationships between international trade and CO2 emissions in China using STIRPAT and EKC models. Design/Methodology/Approach - This study utilized time series data from 1990 to 2016 and adopted the econometric procedure of OLS and SUR. Also, this study used the traditional Granger causality and Spectral Granger causality to identify the cause of CO2 emissions. Findings - First, the increase in GDP, industrialization index, labor force, and export from China have a positive effect on CO2 emissions but agricultural production and renewable energy consumption have a negative effect on CO2 emissions based on STIRPAT. Second, the EKC hypothesis of China has ambiguous results even if trade openness and CO2 emissions have a weak inverted U and N types. Third, industrialization index, agricultural production, labor force, renewable energy consumption, total energy use, export, and energy intensify of China have traditional and spectral Granger causality. Research Implications - Through China’s export-led growth strategy, it can be seen that the greenhouse gas emissions inherent in Chinese exports directly and indirectly affect not only the domestic production process but also other countries that import and consume Chinese products. Therefore, in order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in China, that the effort and cooperation of trading partners that produce and consume Chinese products. The process of restructuring China’s industrial structure and fostering the renewable energy industry, it should be used as an opportunity for Korean companies to enter the market.