인구구조 변화가 지역내총생산에 미치는 영향

Effect of Demographic Structural Change on GRDP Growth Growth Decomposition Method Applied to Incheon Metropolitan City

Demographic change has been paid attention to policy makers in South Korea because this country experienced unprecedented aging society. Even large metropolitan cities lost their population and the ratio of working age population sharply dropped. There has been growing concern on the devastating effect of rapid demographic changes on the metropolitan cities. The paper aims to analyze the effect of demographic structural change on the regional economic growth in a case of Incheon metropolitan city of South Korea. We employ a growth decomposition method through which per capita GRDP is decomposed into some factors including productivity, reallocation of labor, employment rate, and ratio of working age population. The analytical result provides some empirical findings of the negative effect of population aging but those effects are offset by increase of labor market participation and sectoral productivity. In addition, we simulate the effect of demographic changes over 20 years. It shows that per capita GRDP of Incheon metropolitan city would reach a peak in 2028 and then decline gradually.