미래 기후변화를 고려한 보령댐 비상도수시설 운영방안 연구

Boryeong Dam Emergency Water Diversion Facility: Ensuring Operational Flexibility and Resilient Response to Climate Change

본 연구에서는 심화되고 있는 기후변화를 고려하여 보령댐 비상도수시설의 운영방법을 단순 Open-close release 형태에서 수자원의 효율적 이용측면에서 유리한 대응단계(관심, 주의, 경계, 심각)별 탄력운영방안에 대하여 연구하였다. 충남서부권지역의 보령시 지역을 대상으로 장래 기후변화 시나리오를 SWAT 모형을 이용하여 강수량과 유입량을 모의한 결과 결정계수 R2 값이 86.3%로 모형적합도가 적절한 것으로 확인되었다. 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 4가지와 SSP 2가지를 대상으로 유량변화를 적용한 보령댐 유역의 용수수급을 MODSIM으로 모의한 결과, 온실가스 저감정책정도에 따른 RCP시나리오 적용시 도수로의 탄력운영 적용방안보다 지속성장(친환경적 성장발전) 또는 고속성장(화석연료 의존 발전) SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5 시나리오 적용시 도수로 평균저수량이 39,600 m3/day, 39,900 m3/day로 적고 물부족 일수도 적게 나타났다.

The Boryeong district, Chungnam western region, is well known as a chronic water-deficiency area; it is thus necessary to ensure that the operational system for the Boryeong Dam emergency facilities is sufficiently resilient to withstand the potential impacts of climate change, in particular irregular droughts with resultant low water inflows and low storage. This study was undertaken to determine the operational flexibility of the Boryeong Dam emergency diversion facilities and their ability to respond to water resources demand, even if the facilities have been operating on a simple open-close release rule, depending on dam storage levels. The precipitation and inflow in Boryeong district were forecasted according to the modelling of RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) in combination with SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) scenarios. This has led to recommendations for the flexible operation of the Dam’s diversion facilities in order to ensure a stable water supply based especially on SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5; i.e., steady growth and dramatic growth scenarios were simulated. The result from these two scenarios was an average diversion rate of 39,600 m3/day and 39,900 m3/day, respectively. This was evaluated as reasonable water resource use because water deficit days were fewer, and the average diversion rate was less than the RCP scenarios.