The Effects of SCORING First on the Match Results in Football Matches

Purpose: As a single goal in football has a great value compared to other sport, the importance of the first goal is also greater than other sport. This study aimed to identify the effects of scoring first on the match results considering a variety of match situational variables e.g. match venue, team quality, opposition team quality, the latest performance form, opposition’s latest performance form and time, that were not considered in the previous football studies. Method: All matches(N=162) from all teams(N=12) in K-league during 2020 season were selected as a sample. The data, officially provided from K-league website, were compiled using Microsoft Office Excel 2007 and IBM SPSS 25 was used to conduct statistical analysis. The mean and standard deviation were obtained through descriptive statistical analysis, and cross-tabulation analysis and chi-square analysis were conducted to analyze the mean differences between independent variables. Results: Of all matches, a goal scored during 149 matches and 13 matched finished without a goal, that resulted 0:0. Of 149 matches, the teams that scored the first goal had a 68.5% chance of winning the matches. The winning rate(67.9%) when the home teams scored the first goal was lower than that of the away teams(69%), but there was no statistically significant difference. The winning rate(87.7%) when the top teams scored the first goal was statistically significantly higher than the winning rate(55%) when the middle teams and the bottom teams(52.3%) scored the first goal. The winning rate(47.5%) when scoring the first goal against the top teams was statistically lower than the winning rate(72.9%) when scoring the first goal against the middle teams and the bottom teams(80%). The winning rate of teamsscored first goal at the end of matches(60-75 minutes: 88.2%, 75-90 minutes: 100%) was higher than the winning rate of teams scored first early(0-15 minutes: 64.3%, 15-30 minutes: 63.3%), but there was no statistically significant difference. Conclusion: The first goal had a huge impact on the outcome of the game. In detail, the first goal had a significant impact on the outcome of the matches depending on the level of the teams that scored the first goal and the opposing teams, while the venue, recent performance form and time of the matches did not have a significant impact. Looking at these results, the need for research on the first goal, which greatly affects the outcome of the game, is emerging, and it is believed that systematic analysis is needed to suit the situational variables.