Predictors for Youth NEET in Mongolia: Evidence from the Labor Force Survey – 2016

Objective: In Mongolia, NEET youth constitutes over 24% of all youth which is a big loss for the country because it threatens the potential of reaping the first and second demographic dividends Therefore, this study examines the risk factors that lead youth to become NEET in Mongolia, and explores their heterogeneity. The study proposes that there are three kinds of NEET youth: i) unemployed, ii) due-to-family-duty, and iii) idle. To further, the unemployed NEET youth is disaggregated into seven categories: short-term unemployed, long-term unemployed, re-entrant, unavailable due to disability or illness, discouraged, mismatch and others. Method: This study carries out chi-square and multinomial logistic regressions to provide prevalence and predictors for youth NEET based on the Labor Force Survey of Mongolia. The survey comprises nationally representative sample of 43,680 individuals, but the unit of 12,697 youth aged 15-34, and 3,050 youth NEET aged 15-34. When sample weight is applied, this indicates that there were 228,555 youth who were NEET in 2016 out of 910,603 youth aged 15-34 years old in Mongolia. Results: It was found that about one in 4 youth in Mongolia is NEET. Sex, marriage, location, household size and education are all statistically significant predictors for youth to become either ‘unemployed,’ or, ‘due-to-family-duty,’ or, ‘idle’ NEET. More than 40% of ‘idle’ NEET are in rural areas whereas 42.2% of ‘unemployed NEET’ are in aimag centre. Probability of becoming ‘idle NEET’ is increased with having disability. The odds for the unemployed NEET with tertiary education of being NEET are 2.05 times the odds for youth with primary or less education. Beneath the unemployed NEET, about 50% of those are long-term unemployed, and about 15% are discouraged workers.