선진국의 대중 기술적 무역장벽조치 효과에 관한 실증연구

An Empirical Study on the Effects of Developed Countries’s TBT to China with Dynamic Panel Analysis

본 연구는 외국이 중국에 대해 조치한 무역기술장벽이 중국의 수출에 미치는 영향에 대한 실증분석을 위해 중국의 주요 무역상대국 33개국가을 선정하여 2002년부터 2014년까지 13년간의 패널데이터를 이용하였다. 분석모형은 중력모형을 바탕으로 연구의 주제인 TBT, 중국의 교역상대국에 대한 비관세 장벽보호수준의 측정치(NTBs), 중국의 기술혁신으로 인한 중국기업의 특허권(Patent) 그리고 위안/달러의 실질환율(REER) 등 관련 설명요소를 함께 추가하였다. 패널분석을 위해 최소제곱법(OLS)과 3단계 최소자승법(3SLS)을 이용하였다. 또한 TBT특정무역현안 데이터를 (STCs Data) 이용하여 EU나라와 미국 대상으로 기계, 전자, 화학세라믹제품 3가지 품목을 선정하여 동적패널분석(dynamic panel analysis)을 하였다. 이상의 실증분석결과를 바탕으로 앞으로 중국이 외국의 무역기술장벽에 대한 정부와 수출기업의 대응전략에 대해서 제안하였다.

The use of technical barriers to trade (TBT) is widespread and has increasing impact on international trade. In contrast to most other trade measures, TBT have both trade promotion and trade restriction effects. Due to their theoretical complexity and their scarcity, TBT have been considered as one of the most difficult non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to quantify. In this paper, I construct a TBT database from 2003-2016 to examine the influence of TBT imposed by EU and US on the Chinese imports. I did empirical study by the method of 3SLS and dynamic panel analysis with Arellano-Bond GMM. When using the WTO TBT cases notified non-tariff measures, I find that EU and US TBTs on Chinese imports are trade restrictive: any unit increase in TBT will decrease import value . However, when I divide the data according to country group and product group, I find that the negative effects of TBT are strong and statistically significant in electric goods and chemical products group than machinery products group based on the entire period. However, if the focus is shifted to countries group, I find that TBT on DC’s group have trade decreasing effects, but on LDC’s group promotion effects. Any unit increase in TBT of LDC will increase import value, but in case of DC’s TBT on China will decrease import from China. Finally, I conclude that the TBT effects will be different according to the industries group and countries group. DC’s TBTs on Chinese imports are trade restricting, but LDC’s TBT on Chinese imports are trade promoting. DC’s TBT on Chinese electric and chemical goods are larger and stronger than machinery goods.