지역별 주택경기 순환변동에 관한 연구

A Study on the regional Housing Business Cycle

The purpose of this study is to analyze the regional housing business cycle in the korea housing markets. We used the HP(Hodrick-Prescott) filter to analyze the regional business cycle in the housing sale markets and rental markets. The results of this study are as follows: First, as a result of the estimation of business cycles in housing markets by the HP filter, we found that the housing sales market showed 6 cycles and the average cycle was 55.8 months during 1986:1~2011:6, and the housing rents market showed 6 cycles and the average cycle was 56.4 months at the same time. Second, as a result of analyzing the housing business cycles by region, we found that 6 cycles were in Seoul, Daejeon, Ulsan, and Kwangju, 5 cycles in Incheon and Busan, and 7 cycles in Daegu. And we found that business cycles of Seoul and other metropolitan cities were similar until 2000 year, but were quitely different from those by region since 2001 year. Such findings provide important information about business forecasting and buying decision for housing buyers, and contribute to the efficient method to frame the rational housing policy. And the housing business cycle was similar to the apartment business cycle. So, the present apartment-oriented housing policies are so as not to go far. But because the difference of regional housing business cycles have been expanded since 2001, the discriminatory housing policies reflecting the regional demands are needed.