한국과 일본의 주택시장에 관한 연구

A Study on the Housing Markets between Korea and Japan - Focus on Rental Price Determinants and Long Term Housing Prices -

Housing prices in Japan peaked in 1990, and both of its nominal and real prices have fallen since then, signalling continuing deflation. In the meantime, Korea’ nominal housing prices have risen consistently, that is different from Japan’s nominal housing prices. According to rental price determinants, Korea’s housing prices in 1990 were overvalued, and according to long-term housing price determinants, prices in 1990, 2002~2004 and 2007~2008 were overvalued. On the other hand, Japan’s housing prices observed in 1989~1990 were overvalued, deviating far not only from the price trend line but also from the long-term housing prices influenced by fundamental factors. The results show that in Japan, since the time it entered the aging society, the elderly population proportion has negatively affected housing prices. For Korea that is approaching to an aging society, it is too early to tell that the increasing proportion of the elderly population (aged 65 and over) brings negative impacts to the housing market. It is however worth to note that the proportion of those aged 50~64 brings statistically significant negative impacts to the housing market, implying that an increasing elderly population will affect the housing market in a longer time-series. Under this circumstance, these empirical analysis results demonstrate that housing supply policy is of greater importance than ever.