거시경제 변수를 활용한 주택담보대출 연체율에 미치는 결정요인에 관한 연구

A Study on the Determinants of the Housing Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rate by Using the Macroeconomic Variables

In the second quarter of 2017, the size of the household debts has been reaching 1,388 trillion won. And, because the size of the housing mortgage loans has been closing in upon 560 trillion won, around 40.3% has been crowded in the housing demand funds. Regarding this, there is no choice but for the influence on the entire economy to be high according to the increase of the delinquency rate in case the economy worsens or the recession continues. This study intends to suggest the implications regarding the housing mortgage loans in the long-term viewpoint through the influence evaluations of the macroeconomic variables related to such housing mortgage loan delinquencies. The macroeconomic variables that were used were the housing mortgage loan delinquency rate (TOD), the price index of the average buying and selling of the real apartment transactions (APT_PRICE), the new housing mortgage loan interest rate (HINTEREST), the index of the industrial products (IIP), the amount of money in circulation (M2), the monetary amount of the housing mortgage loans (HML), the amount of the apartment transactions (TRADE), and these were unfolded in the viewpoint of the relationship with the real estate market and the currency policy. As a result of the unit root test, it appeared that, regarding the amount of the apartment transactions, the time series raw data had been maintaining the stability. And it was able to find out that the data of the remaining variables, including the housing mortgage loan delinquency rate (TOD), had been getting stabilized through the primary difference. Because, as a result of a co-integration test, at least 6 variables possess the linear, the selection of the model used the VEC model, and, regarding the optimal differential, the 1st model was selected based on the SC (Schwarz Criterion) value. As a result of taking a look at the granger causality relationship, it appeared that the variables that had the influences on the housing mortgage loan delinquency rate were the price index of the average buying and selling of the real apartment transactions (APT_PRICE), the new housing mortgage loan interest rate (HINTEREST), the index of the industrial products (IIP), the amount of money in circulation (M2), and the amount of the apartment transactions (TRADE). As a result of analyzing the VECM (Vector error correction Model) short-run equilibrium relationship, it appeared that the housing mortgage loan delinquency rate were influenced by the index of the average price of the buying and selling of the real transactions of the apartments and by the index of industrial products. As a result of a reaction to a shock, the positive (+) correlation appeared between the housing mortgage loan delinquency rate and the amount of the transactions of the apartments (TRADE) and, also, the interest rate of the new housing mortgage loan (HINTEREST). Eventually, regarding the housing mortgage loan delinquency rate, if the interest rate goes up, right away, an increase of the delinquency rate takes place. And, it appeared that, if the monetary amount of the housing mortgage loan becomes big, the delinquency rate decreases. This is because the delinquency rate has the influences on the incomes and others of the like, it can be under the control of the interest rate policies. The meaning of this research is that it investigated about the relationship with the housing mortgage loan delinquency rates by considering the indices in the real estate market and the currency policies at the same time. And, it is that, in the condition in which the scale of the housing mortgage loan having become big at present, raising the interest rate can aggravate the confusion more in the market. As a result, with regard to the proceeding with the real estate policies, the prudent and macroscopic approach is needed. And the researches on the relationships of the indices will be needed more in the macroscopic viewpoint.