세종과 대전지역 부동산시장의 상호 영향 관계

A Study on the Interrelationship between the Real Estate of Sejong and Daejeon -According to the Construction Step of Multifunctional Administrative City-

The purpose of this study is to examine what effects the construction of multifunctional administrative city located at Sejong-si had on peripheral real estate at each step of development and seek out its implications. To this end, it designed some study models by Sejong-si and each real estate market by using land value index, average housing and rental price of apartments in Sejong-si, Daejeon-si, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, west districts of Daejeon from January, 2002 to April, 2017, as variables. The study models conducted empirical analyses on the effect relationship between the periphery of Sejong-si and the real estate market, in connection with main issues in the construction of multifunctional administrative city, by dividing data by each step (plan, construction starting and transference) on the criteria of construction starting time (7. 20. 2007) and launching of Sejong-si (7. 1. 2012). The ADF test of time series data’s stability verified instability of the original time series, so the first order differenced one was determined to be used and a proper time lag for each variable was set as the first order according to AIC and SC. In addition, the establishment long-run equilibrium was examined by Unit-root and Cointegration Test, and then VAR model was established. This study initially understand the long-run equilibrium between variables through VECM and the short run effect relationship around outcomes of models, as there are the cointegration in some models. In order to confirm effects of such variables, the Granger Causality Test was conducted and a related structure was examined. Finally, it analyzed directions and magnitude of influences, with impulse response function and variance decomposition. The findings from such an empirical analysis can be summarized: First, effects of land market in Sejong-si were differentiated by each area, depending on analysis time (step of development in Sejong-si). Second, spillover effects of land market in Sejong-si on peripheral land market, along with the construction of multifunctional administrative city occurred not immediately but after time lag. Third, housing and rental market of apartments together with land market in Sejong-si since the launching of the city has dominated fluctuation of price in such markets in each area. Finally, the influence of land market in Sejong-si since the launching of the city has been gradually dampened, while those of housing and rental markets in Sejong-si have been reinforced.