패널분석을 이용한 거시경제변수가 오피스시장에 미치는 영향 연구

A Study on the Influence of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Office Market using Panel Analysis: Focusing on Rent, Return On Investment, and Vacancy Rate

In the age of continuous low interest rate, there is an increasing interest in office market as an investment market for creating benefits. However, information on office market is insufficient. Moreover, information presented by private enterprises lacks credibility, because the sample adopted by each enterprise is different, and the materials presented also vary. The Ministry of Land, Transport, and Maritime Affairs has presented different indices through Korea Appraisal Board. Despite their public confidence, there is no correlation with macroeconomic indicators, which is an external factor of real estate. Therefore, further research is required for stable investment. This study conducted panel analysis, based on the office market of Seoul and 6 metropolitan cities from the first quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2018 provided by the Korea Appraisal Board, to analyze the influence of macroeconomic indicators on office buildings rent, return on investment, and vacancy rate. It was found that in a model in which the rent was set as a dependent variable, consumer price index had a positive effect while money supply(M2), market rate and Econmc sentiment index had a negative effect. In a model in which return on investment was set as a dependent variable, consumer price index, market rate and Economic sentiment index had a positive effect. Lastly, in a model in which vacancy rate was set as a dependent variable, money supply (M2) had a positive effect while consumer price index and market rate had a negative effect. This shows that macroeconomic indicators must be considered when analyzing an office market.