1인 가구의 소득특성을 반영한 장기주택수요 예측

Forecasting of Long-term Housing Demand Considering Income Characteristics of the Single-Person Households

This study estimated long-term housing demand considering income factors of the single-person households. Although previous studies on housing demands estimated demographic factors without consideration on income of single-person households, this paper estimated the long-term housing demand based on the hypothesis that changes in income will lead to changes in housing demand. With differences by periods, it was analyzed that the constant increase of single-person households was accompanied by increased area for housing demand. It was, however, estimated to gradually decrease after 2035. The result suggests that single-person households have significant influence on housing demand, and, on the other hand, the area for single-person households is not very smaller than that for the whole households. In accordance with the result of our study, despite reduced number of family members, the area for housing for older people did not decrease in proportion to the family member reduction, and it is understood that their demand for area is larger than that of a single person in a family of 3 or more. Therefore, the policymaking for future housing should consider the characteristics, income, and assets of single-person households to induce appropriate housing consumption rather than just coping with collective housing demands.