인터넷 검색빈도와 아파트 거래량 간의 선행-후행 관계

The Lead-Lag Relationship between Internet Search Volume and Trading Volume in Apartment Market

The aim of this paper is to investigate empirically the lead-lag relation between Internet search volume(Naver Trend Index) and trading volume of apartment. The Internet is the main source of information gathering. The increase of Internet search volume on something means the increase of people’s interest in something. Previous studies in this topic examine the relationship between Internet search volume and the released trading volume of apartment. The distinguishing feature of this empirical study is that it investigates the relation between Internet search volume and the fundamental trading volume of apartment, and the relationship between Internet search volume and the transitory trading volume of apartment. The first step of this empirical study is to decompose released trading volume into fundamental trading volume and transitory trading volume. The second step is unit root test. The third step is Granger causality test. The results of Granger causality test reveal that Internet search volume Granger causes released trading volume of apartment, and the fundamental trading volume of apartment. And there exists one-way Granger causality from Internet search volume to the transitory trading volume of apartment. The fourth step, the impulse response function analysis reveals that the shock of Internet search volume generally increases the magnitude of released trading volume, fundamental trading volume and transitory trading volume. The findings of this paper indicate that the movement of Internet search volume helps to estimate trading volume of apartment market. Therefore, the movement of Internet search volume can serve as an early market indicator.