서울시 정비사업의 주택공급 특성 및 공급가능 물량 분석

Analysis of Housing Supply Characteristics and Available Quantity of Improvement Project in Seoul

This paper analyzed the contribution of housing supply based on the progress of redevelopment and reconstruction projects among the improvement project in Seoul. By analyzing the project promotion stage of the improvement project, the amount of housing available from 2020 to 2035 was calculated. The implications of the improvement project for the housing supply policy are as follows. First, housing supply characteristics accounted for over 70% of apartments compared to the total number of homes supplied in the 2000s, but fell below 50% after 2010. Second, from 2005 to 2018, the contribution of the housing supply to the improvement project compared to the new number of housing supply has been continuously decreasing to about 22.2%. Third, it is expected that total of 390,000 units will be supplied by 2035 by the improvement project. And it is expected to supply 85,000 units by 25, 16,200 units by 26-30, and 14,200 units by 30. Lastly, the amount of housing available for each period of completion of the improvement project is expected to surge to 15,000 units annually from 20 to 25 years and 32,000 units from 26 to 30 years. Therefore, the improvement project takes a long period of time, and there is a limit to the short-term housing supply policy. It is necessary to convert the old housing in the down town into a housing policy for rational housing stock management.