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KCI등재 학술저널

Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in Thailand and China: Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Testing

This study aimed to investigate the existence of the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) puzzle in international macroeconomics by applying the conditional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the long-run relationship between national savings and investments in Thailand and China. The input of this study relied on annual national savings and investments as a fraction of GDP during 1980–2019 which was collected from China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Thailand National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). Hypothetically, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests were applied to test the stationary properties and to investigate the integration level of selected time series. The empirical results, confirmed by cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum square (CUSUMSQ), maintained no serial correlation and structural break problems. The finding of this study suggested that the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Thailand did not exist significantly. Thailand’s national savings and investments nexus was independent, following the classic economic idea that financial liberalization, or perfect capital mobility, allowed national savings and investments to flow freely to countries with better interest rates. Whereas, a strong significant correlation was found in the case of China during the fixed exchange rate regime switching in 1994 and post WTO participation after 2001–2019.

1. Introduction

2. Data and Methodology

3. Model Construction

4. Results

5. ARDL-ECM Cointegration Study

6. The Long Run Estimation Results (Case of China)

7. The Estimated Error Correction Model (Case of China)

8. Stability Test

9. Conclusion

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