중력모형을 이용한 우리나라의 원당 및 정제당 수입량 결정요인 분석

An Analysis of the Determinants of Raw Sugar and Refined Sugar Import Volumes in Korea Using Gravity Model

Sugar is a very important agricultural product that is finally consumed or used as an intermediate product in the Korea food industry. However, raw sugar used to make sugar cannot be produced on its own, so it is mainly imported from Australia and Thailand, and the amount imported in the last three years is 1.78 million tons. Furthermore raw sugar is sensitive to weather conditions and oil prices, making it more price variability than other grains. For these reasons, it is important for Korea to bring in sugar stably to stabilize food prices and secure raw materials. Nevertheless, there is still lack of studies on the import of sugar in Korea. Thus, the purpose of this study is analyzing the determinants of raw sugar and refined sugar import volumes in Korea using gravity model. For this purpose, we constructed the panel data set over the 2000~2019 periods and carried out a gravity model by adopting random effect panel Tobit estimation. Also, we compared the estimates with Tobit model, OLS and PPML each other. From the empirical results, all estimates ware derived theoretically appropriate. First, Korean sugar imports was increased as growing GDP. Second, the decline in sugar imports was affected by the price of sugar and Action plan for sugars reduction. Third, decreased distance and FTA were proved to be a boost in sugar imports.