혁신도시 개발정책 평가

The Evaluation of the Impact of Innovative City Development Policy: Focusing on Local Real Estate Prices

This study investigates the impact of the innovative city development policy aimed at the agglomeration economy from two perspectives, focusing on land and apartment prices. These are whether the increase in local income through the agglomeration economy drive up the rise in real estate prices and/or whether real estate prices rise due to expectations for simple development profit. The former was analyzed by using macroeconomic indicators such as GRDP and per capita regional income. In the latter case, by using year-dummy variables, we explore the change of influence by each of policy implementation stage. From 2007 to 2019, as a result of panel regression analysis of 175 cities, counties, and districts, it is found that land and apartment prices rose without income increase in the innovative cities. In the case of annual apartment price change, it increased significantly in 2011, just before public institution relocation was actively executed. This can be said to reflect the expectation that housing demand will increase after the completion of relocation of public institutions. In the case of land prices, the magnitude of the increase in land prices was not that large during the research period when compared with apartment prices. We conjecture that the research period of this study is the time when the innovative city site development projects had already begun. When implementing such a large scale city development policies in the future, more sophisticated policy formation and management are required to effectively realize the economy of agglomeration, and at the same time, it is necessary to prepare a smart measure to prevent speculation in both land and apartments.