FAVAR 모형을 이용한 서울시 주택가격 순환변동의 영향요인 분석

Influencing Factors of Cycle Variation of Housing Prices in Seoul Using the FAVAR Model

The purpose of this stuousing prices and provide information for effective polidy is to analyze the factors influencing the cycle variation of housing prices in Seoul for accurately predict the cycle variation of hcy establishment based on this. For the purpose of this study, a total of 19 items were obtained from the apartment transaction index from January 2007 to July 2020, 5 variables of supply and demand, 6 variables of macroeconomics, 4 variables of consumer psychology, and 4 variables of economic policy, targeting the 5 metropolitan areas of Seoul. Time series data were used and analyzed using the FAVAR model. As a result of the analysis of the impulse response function, the cycle variation of housing prices in five areas Seoul showed a negative(-) response to the shock of supply and demand factors, and a positive (+) response to the shock of economic policy factors. therefore stabilizing housing prices. This confirmed that housing price stabilization has a greater effect of supply expansion than demand regulation, and the problem of regulation-oriented government policy is confirmed. As a result of variance decomposition, the southeast region showed high explanatory power of macroeconomic factors, indicating strong investment characteristics. In the southeast and southwest regions, the explanatory power of economic policy factors was high, so it was possible to predict the balloon effect between these regions. Based on these results, policy proposals for stabilizing housing prices were made.