국제광물가격변동에 대한 몽골 경제의 대응방안

A Corresponding Measure of Mongolian Economy to the Fluctuation of International Mineral Prices: Focus on the Variations in Terms of Trade

This paper attempts to examine policy measures for reviving stagnant economy of Mongolia. Mongolian economy has been recently in a difficult situation because of downward trend in prices of minerals and presumably faced with an ordeal of protectionism. The Bank of Mongolia says mineral exports accounted for 90 percent of the country s economic growth, and recent stagnant of Mongolia has been most attributed to the downward trend in prices of minerals. According to the 12th GTA reports, G8 nations are being hit frequently by beggar-thy-neighbour policies, while small countries such as, Mongol and Korea are being harmed by protectionist measures more frequently than any other countries. The consequences shows that GDIs of China and Mongolia are recorded as lower than GDP because of negative gains of trade since 2005. This infers that the current loss of trade will be followed by a period of protection measures. We propose that we should basically prepare liberalizing measures, because Mongolia has been aimed at an open-economy export-oriented since the era of economic transition. On the other hand, we selectively prepare protecting measures because Mongolia is no longer small country in a point of view, such as mineral industry. Specific policy measures mentioned above are discussed.