한 몽 EPA 체결이 양국 교역규모에 미치는 영향

Effects of EPA on the Trade Volume between Mongolia and Korea: An Empirical Analysis using Gravity Model and Revealed Comparative Advantage

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This paper analyzes the impact of the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Korea and Mongolia, on promoting bilateral trade using the gravity model. The gravity model is an empirical analysis method that is often used to analyze the effects of FTA or EPA. In addition, the Reveled comparative advantage coefficient was estimated to find comparative advantage products between Korea and Mongolia. This will help us identify what competitive products are in both countries and help us find ways to strengthen bilateral trade relations. According to the analysis of the gravity model, if the two countries sign EPA, Mongolia’s trade volume will increase by about 1.5 times. Also, as shown in the Mongolian and Japanese cases, the signing of EPA is expected to increase direct investment in addition to increasing trade volume. According to the analysis of comparative advantage, Mongolia has high export competitiveness in agriculture, mining and textile products, and Korea has high export competitiveness in automobiles, machinery and food. In other words, the two countries differ in import and export composition, which means that there are opportunities to increase the size of bilateral trade. The limitation of this paper is an analysis of the effects of the EPA focusing only on trade, and it is necessary to expand it to analyze the effects of future services and investments.