주택시장과 오피스시장간 동태적 상관분석

Analysis of the Dynamic Correlation between Housing Market and Office Market: Focused on Seoul

This study demonstrated the dynamic correlation among the Seoul housing sales price, the Seoul housing rent price, the Seoul apartment lease price, the large office building rent pice, and the vacancy rate from the first quarter of 2009 to the last quarter of 2020 by a time series analysis. As the result of analysis, it is confirmed that there are no cointegration relation among the variables, so VAR model is selected for the next analysis. Also, from Granger causality test, this study confirmed that SRLI Granger Cause SRRI, SRRI Granger Cause SRSI, SRSI Granger Cause SOV and SOV Granger Cause SOR sequentially. Based on the results of Granger causality this study choose the ordering of variables for the impulse response function and analyzed it. Main results from the analysis are as follows. First, for the shock to SRLI, SRRI has positive response by 7 quarters and then, converge to 0 and SRSI has negative response after 2 quarters, and then the effect disappeared. Second, for the shock of SRLI, SOV and SOR have positive responses respectively, and then, the magnitude of the effects is not significant.