서울시 하부시장별 주택담보대출의 대출특성과 신용위험

Loan Characteristics and Credit Risk of Residential Mortgages by Submarkets in Seoul

Due to the lack of available public data, the literature in residential mortgage seems too thin to explain the loan terms and credit risk features in Seoul submarkets. The purpose of this study is to examine the differences of mortgage characteristics and unequal distribution of credit risk by submarket, based upon 45,464 Seoul housing loans of a commercial bank. Research foci include each submarket’s averages of LTV (Lont-to-Value) ratios, DTI (Debt-to-Income) ratios, property values and incomes as well as ratios of delinquent and bad loans to loan portfolios. Among various property types, condominiums look the most stable concerning the risk factors like LTV ratio and income thus the lowest in the bad loan ratio. Though, the debt service for condominium owners is the heaviest: which means that this type of residence is vulnerable to the unexpected financial turmoils. Also, as the average of borrower’s age goes up, it is obvious to find the deleverage pattern in mortgages. North-eastern submarket shows the highest delinquency and bad loan ratios in five submarkets, Seoul: the main reason may be the risky figures of low property values and high LTVs. On the contrary, south-eastern submarket is analyzed as the least risky area with the lowest delinquency and bad loan ratios. It can be concluded that the current level of LTV ratio of 37.4% is not a serious threat to hurt the soundness of housing loans in Seoul in the near future. Though, no one can confirm that this trend will go on in the long-term basis with the absence of younger generation’s purchasing power.