공공부문 한국형 주간경제지수 모델 개발 및 검증에 관한 연구

A Study on the Development and Verification of a Korean-style Weekly Economic Activity Index(WEAI) Model in the Public Sector: By Analyzing Major Cases

The global economy has been very difficult due to the recent impact of COVID-19. Korea is also pushing for strong quarantine policies such as K- quarantine and social distancing, but the economy is hardly recovering. In particular, the economic situation began to change rapidly depending on the export and domestic market, the public s interest in the economy increased, and companies became more sensitive. In order to estimate this rapidly changing economic situation, major advanced countries have also developed models that can periodically monitor the economy at the government level. Through this, by periodically reporting the economic trends, the public and companies can be aware of the economic trends to some extent. This study analyzed the cases of weekly business trends in advanced countries and developed a model of weekly economic activity suitable for Korea. To verify this, indices closely related to the economy such as mobility, industrial activity, face-to-face consumption, and psychology were discovered and estimated. As a result of the study, the weekly economic activity index was judged to be very useful in capturing short-term real economic activity. In the future, in order to secure the robustness and stability of the index and to increase the reflection of reality, model improvement and parameter estimation should be performed regularly.