An Analysis of the Behavior and Factors Affecting the Prices of Pork in the Philippines, 2001-2020

Purpose - The study analyzed the behavior and the factors affecting the prices of pork in the Philippines from 2001 to 2020. Specifically, it aimed to: 1) describe the trends and growth rate in the annual retail prices, volume and import level of pork; 2) predict the future prices of pork; 3) determine the factors affecting real pork prices and; (4) draw some policy recommendations for the Philippine pork industry. Design/Methodology/Approach - Secondary data from Philippine Statistics Authority, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Department of Agriculture (DA) and other related agencies was gathered and utilized. The data gathered includes production data, average income, retail prices of pork and related good (chicken) and import level of pork for a period of 20 years from 2001 - 2020. The data collected was tabulated and summations, averages, and percentages were applied. Graphs and descriptive statistics were used to show the trend of volume of production and the pork’s nominal and real prices. Trend analysis, the decomposition method, centered-moving average and multiple linear regression were also used. Findings - The results of the study showed that for 20 years, generally, the annual real retail price of pork were stable with minimal fluctuations. On the other hand, the price decomposition revealed there was a little variation in the price of pork since it is not easily affected by seasonality. In addition, the retail forecast price of pork was also determined through the decomposition method. Furthermore, the factors affecting pork prices were evaluated using four functional models through multiple linear regression. The results showed that the linear model was the best model having the highest adjusted coefficient of variation equal to 62 %; had the highest number (3) of significant explanatory variables and three variables conformed to the economic theory as well. Research Implications - The study recommended for the government to insure the protection of the farmers from African Swine Fever by strictly monitoring the movement of meat products inside and outside the country. Lastly, the government can disseminate information about the trends in the pork prices so that farmers, traders and meat processors can capitalize on higher prices based on the forecasted prices of pork.