한국 국내정치가 한·미/한·중관계에 미치는 영향

Domestic Politics of South Korea and Its Impact on Relationships with the US and China: the 20th Presidential Election and South Korean’s Perception of Security Issues

The majority of South Koreans hold conservative positions on foreign policy and security issues. Public opinion on security issues, however, does not have significant impact on foreign policy making. Instead, the perceptions of the president and his inner circle have a decisive impact. With just a couple of months until the 20th presidential election scheduled for March 2022, the two presidential candidates have quite different perceptions of foreign and security policy issues. Mr. Lee Jae-myung, candidate of the ruling Democratic Party (DP), has a friendly view of North Korea, but has negative perceptions of the US and the ROK-US alliance. Mr. Yoon Suk-yeol, candidate of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), has a negative perception of North Korea, and friendly views of the US and the ROK-US alliance. Given the continued competition and rivalry between the US and China since the beginning of the 21st century, the two countries have pressured neighboring countries to take their side. South Korea has been sandwiched between the US and China. Mr. Lee, if he wins, will tilt toward China and the South Korea-US relationship will become estranged. Mr. Yoon, if he wins the election, will further strengthen the ROK-US alliance. Unless the North Korean nuclear and missile threat disappear, South Korea, for its survival, must strengthen the ROK-US alliance, and find an effective way to reduce its economic dependence on China.