서해 NLL상 남북간 무력 충돌 배경과 해법에 관한 연구

A Study on the Armed Conflicts between the Two Koreas on the NLL in the Yellow Sea

In the study, we aim to analyze the background of the military policy in the armed conflicts between the two Koreas in the Yellow Sea. We also try to identify internal or mutual relations between the two Koreas. If we develop an analytical framework that can explain the process of armed conflict between the two Koreas, we will have the means for establishing an empirical and institutional mechanism that can transform inter-Korean relations into a more stable and controllable system. In the future, when armed conflict occurs in the Yellow Sea, it is possible to predict how the North s response will change, and this analytical framework may help to prevent an unnecessary escalation of a war by quickly taking countermeasures. Given that strategies and behaviors of the North Korean system are relatively consistent and predictable to some extent, it is necessary to conduct various analyses and comparative verification of the North’s provocations to understand the essence and substantive truth of their provocations. At the same time, if we fail to misjudge or learn lessons from North Korea s provocations, the North will likely continue to test us and control the overall situation on the Korean Peninsula in a harsher manner. In that term, preparing various countermeasures for North Korea s provocations against South Korea is very necessary, and it may contribute to resolving the North s provocation itself. The possibility of North Korea s numerous provocations in the Yellow Sea still exists, but the systematic analysis through the flow and context of the times will help us identify the military and political strategies inherent in them. As we prepare for a more concrete and realistic response to the North s intention to dilute and utilize provocations against the South through deceptions, it will eventually be possible to ease tensions between the two Koreas and build trust through the virtuous cycle.