中国对其他金砖国家跨境电商出口贸易的影响因素研究

The Influencing Factors of China’s Cross-border E-commerce Export Trade with Other BRICS Countries: Empirical Analysis Based on Gravity Model

本文在分析金砖国家跨境电商发展情况、中国与其他金砖国家跨境电商贸易现状的基础上，对中国对其他金砖国家的跨境电商出口及其影响因素进行了计量分析。本文在引力模型经典表达式的基础上对模型进行调整，构建以中国对其他金砖国家的跨境电商出口额为因变量，以其他金砖国家的GDP、两国距离、进口国的15-64岁人口、消费差距、互联网普及程度、进口国的物流指数、文化差距八个变量作为自变量的扩展引力模型。本文利用中国和俄罗斯、印度、巴西、南非四个金砖国家于2010-2017年8年的面板数据进行计算，发现进口国GDP、进口国互联网普及程度、消费差距、物流绩效综合指数、人口五个因素对中国对其他金砖国家的跨境电商出口有推动作用，文化差距，地理距离对中国对其他金砖国家的跨境电商出口有负面影响 。

Based on the analysis of the development of cross-border e-commerce in BRICS countries and the status quo of cross-border e-commerce trade between China and other BRICS countries, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of China s cross-border e-commerce exports to other BRICS countries and its influencing factors. Based on the classical expression of gravity model, this paper adjusts the model and constructs an extended gravity model with China s cross-border e-commerce exports to other BRICS countries as dependent variable, GDP of other BRICS countries, distance between China and the BRICS countries, population of importing countries, consumption gap, Internet penetration, logistics performance composite index of importing countries and cultural gap as independent variables. Based on the panel data of China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa for 8 years from 2010 to 2017, this paper finds that the GDP of importing countries, Internet penetration of importing countries, consumption gap, logistics performance composite index and population have a positive impact on China s cross-border e-commerce exports to other BRICS countries, while cultural gap and geographical distance have a negative impact on China s cross-border e-commerce exports to other BRICS countries.