기후변화에 따른 농업생태계 변동과 대책

Climate Change and Its Impact on Agricultural Ecosystem

If the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases double, the annual temperature increase in mean surface temperature relative to 1990 will be about 2.0 to 2.5℃ and the annual precipitation increase about 15% by 2100 in Korea. When the temperature rises 2℃, the annual temperature will be 13℃, 15℃, and 16℃ in Western Central, Yeongnam Basin, and Southern Coastal respectively. Consequently the crop period could be prolonged 10~29 days. In the case of gradual global warming, annual crops could be adapted to the changed environment by breeding, and the perennial crops should be shifted to ether area. If global warming happens suddenly over the threshold of atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration, then we shall have disturbance of ecosystem. When 2℃ higher than present, the optimum flowering date of rice plant delayed about 10 days, so it may not possible to adopt the fate with present japonica rices, therefore, the recommended characteristics of rice varieties are longer basic vegetative period, more late maturing and higher ripening temperature. Barley and wheat crops could be shifted to northern coastal areas and apple production areas should be shifted to those areas under 13.5℃ in annual mean temperature at global warming. Ideotypes of crops under climate changes should have such ecological characteristics that are indispensable to accomplish the sustainable agriculture under increased CO₂ and temperature condition as the diversification of genetic resources from yield-oriented to biomass-oriented characteristics with the higher potentials of CO₂ absorption and Primary production. In addition, a heat-tolerance, a pest resistance, an environmental adaptability and a production stability should be also incorporated collectively into our integrated agroecosystem.