양형이탈 유발요인 탐색

Exploring factors causing sentencing departure: Focusing on murder cases

본 연구는 살인사건에서의 양형이탈 유발요인을 탐색하기 위한 목적으로 실시되었다. 판결문 데이터베이스를 활용하여, 빈도분석과 다항 로지스틱 회귀분석을 통해상향이탈과 하향이탈을 유발하는 요인을 탐색하였다. 전체 747건 중 양형이탈은 총100건 발생했으며, 하향이탈이 59건으로 상향이탈보다 더 많이 발생하였다. 1심보다 2심에서(약 2.5배), 피고인이 전과가 있는 경우(약 2.13배) 상향이탈가능성이 높아졌다. 반면 피고인이 여성(약 3.35배)이거나 지적장애가 있는 경우(약 3.24배)에는 하향이탈 가능성이 높아졌다. 양형인자 ‘처벌불원’이 적용되거나, 피고인에게 범행수행능력 혹은 살인의 고의성·계획성이 없다고 판단되면 상향이탈가능성은 낮아졌다. 반면 고의성·계획성이 있다고 판단되거나, 재판에서 제시된 증거가 많아질수록 하향이탈 가능성이 낮아졌다. 마지막으로 상급심에서 양형기준 준수 여부가 뒤바뀐 사건들을 분석하고, 주요한 일부 특별가중요인에 초점을 맞춰 현행 양형기준에 대한 개선 의견을 제시하였다. 본 연구는 살인범죄 양형기준의 모든하위 유형을 포함하지 못했다는 한계점이 존재하지만, 양적 분석을 통해 처음으로살인사건에서의 양형이탈 유발요인을 탐색했다는 점에서 의의를 지닌다.

The present study aimed to investigate factors that cause sentencing departure in murder cases. Using a sentencing database, frequency analysis and polynomial logistic regression analysis were performed to explore factors that cause upward and downward departure. Of the total 747 murders cases, there were 100 cases of sentencing departure. Among them, compared to upward departure, downward departure (59 cases) was more frequently founded. In the second trial (vs. the first trial, about 2.5 times) and when the defendant had a criminal history (about 2.13 times), the possibility of upward departure increased. When the defendant was a woman (about 3.24 times) or had an intellectual disability (about 3.24 times), possibility of downward departure increased. When sentencing factor ‘the victim opposes punishment’ was recognized, or the defendant was considered as not having ability or intention to commit a murder, the possibility of upward departure significantly decreased. On the other hand, when the defendant was considered as having intention for a murder, or the more evidence presented in the trial, the possibility of downward departure decreased. In addition, we reviewed sentencing cases in the current database to analyze what factors caused changes in the sentencing guideline compliance status for the second trial. Finally, we analyzed three aggravating factors of interest and presented improvement opinions on the current sentencing guideline. Although the current study had a limitation in that it did not include all subtypes of murder, it first explored the factors that cause sentencing departure in murder cases through quantitative analysis.