Улаанбаатар хотын короновируст халдаврын тохиолдлын прогнозчлол

Prognosis for Coronavirus Infection Cases in Ulaanbaatar city

In the first week of December 2021, a total of 267,156,259 people were infected and 5,271,226 died worldwide from covid-19 diseases declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a global pandemic. In Mongolia, a total of 678,950 people were infected, of which 370,598 were registered in Ulaanbaatar. The total number of death is counted as 1950 people. Prognosis for Covid 19 cases is based on the internationally used SEIR model to determine the future direction of the spread of plague infection, but this model depends on a number of parameters (latency, duration of active infection, number of people infected per person, etc.). In this study, we used the exponential method, which is only one method of short-term forecasting. According to the forecast, the number of coronavirus infections is expected to be 1,006 by the end of December 2021 and 1,030 by the end of January 2022. In Ulaanbaatar, the number of monthly reported cases of infection, the time correlation coefficient (R2= 0.544), the number of confirmed cases on the 24th of each month, and the time correlation coefficient (R2= 0.429) show that the above two indicators have moderately positive correlation. The number of coronavirus infections is expected to be confirmed in late December 2021 (827-1185) and in late January 2022 (842-1218). By studying the prevalence of coronavirus infection, it is possible to plan the reduction of the disease, its socio-economic impact, and the long-term, medium, and short-term response options..