항공화물의 수입행태분석

Import Behavior Analysis of Air Cargo: Focusing on Machinery, Transport Equipment and Miscellaneous Manufactured Products

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the import behavioral pattern of air cargo and its determinants using exchange rate and domestic industrial production. Design/Methodology/Approach This paper utilizes a cointegration procedure, error correction equation, forward rolling regression, and impulse response function. We use monthly data for real effective exchange rates, export values, and the domestic industrial production index for the period of January 2009 to December 2020. Sectoral import statistics used in this study are taken from the Korea International Trade Association database for three digit SITC items. Findings The unitroot and the Engle-Granger cointegration tests show that all six variables are non-stationary at levels, but stationary after differencing, and that our model is stationary. The error correction terms, which range from 0.168 to 0.277, are significantly negative. These results imply that the disequilibrium of air cargo import need four or six months for long-run equilibrium at a tolerable pace. The rolling regression indicates that the paths of SITC776 and SITC764 are different from those of SITC728 and SITC874. The impulse response technique shows that both the real effective exchange rate and domestic industrial prodution affect the imports of the four products positively. Research Implications The empirical results that air cargo imports respond to the economic variables such as exchange rate and economic business in line with expectations suggest that air cargo imports are predictable. In addition, the fact that the adjustment speed toward the trend is fast means that the stable growth of the air cargo import are guaranteed. However, we notice that the negative effects of the exchange rate decay slowly.