A Study on the Impact of RCEP Tariff Reduction on Korea’s Agricultural Trade: Simulation Analysis Based on the GTAP Model

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of RCEP tariff reduction on South Korea’s agricultural trade, so as to help the government and agricultural personnel make relevant preparations in advance. Design/Methodology/Approach Based on agricultural trade data between South Korea and RCEP countries, firstly, through the analysis of the RRCA and TCI index, the basic situation of trade competitiveness and complementarity of agricultural products between South Korea and RCEP member countries is clarified. Then, with the help of the global trade analysis model (GTAP model), this paper makes a progressive study on the impact of the RCEP on South Korea’s agricultural trade from the perspective of tariff reduction. The impacts of the four cases are predicted in chronological order. Findings Excluding the influence of other bilateral FTAs, this paper makes an accurate estimation of the impact of RCEP tariff reduction on Korean agriculture. Research shows that although it has a negative impact on most agricultural products, in the long run, participating in the RCEP is more beneficial than resisting. Research Implications In the management of this paper, this study makes a quantitative analysis of the impact of the RCEP in the future, which is helpful to objectively look at the economic impact of regional economic integration. It is conducive to correctly understand the adverse impact of the RCEP on Korean agricultural products, and does not exaggerate this impact, which will also provide reference for other scholarly follow-up research.