Economic ripple effect and implementation planof Inter-Korean railway cooperation project

본 연구의 목적은 남북철도의 경제적 파급효과를 분석하여, 남북철도협력사업의 정책적 시사점을 제시하는 것이다. 분석결과는 첫째, 남북철도 완공이후의 여객 운임의 생산량은 긍정적 남북관계에서는 10년 동안 약 115,666억 원이고, 부정적 관계에서는 27.23억 원으로 그 차이가 크다. 둘째, 남한의 10년 동안 경제적 파급효과는 긍정적 관계에서는 생산유발효과 3,080억 원, 부가가치유발효과 1,028억 원, 수입유발효과는 448억 원이며, 고용유발효과는 899명이다. 반면에 부정적인 남북관계에서는 생산유발효과 0.73억 원, 부가가치유발효과 0.24억 원, 수입유발효과는 0.11억 원이며, 고용유발효과는 0명이다. 남북철도협력사업의 성공적 운영을 위해서는 국제적인 민간투자, 국제적 협력, 법제도화, 안정적인 한반도 평화정착 등이 요구된다.

The purpose of this study is to present policy implications by analyzing the economic ripple effect of people-to-people exchanges in Inter-Korean railway cooperation projects. The analysis results are as follows. First, the production forecast is about 11,566.6 billion won for 10 years from 2031 to 2040 if inter-Korean relations are positive. On the other hand, the negative case was 2.723 billion won over 10 years, showing a fairly large difference. Second, the production inducement coefficient of 2.13, the value-added inducement coefficient of 0.71, the import inducement coefficient of 0.31, and the employment inducement coefficient of 6.21 people/billion KRW. Third, for the economic ripple effect from 2031 to 2040, if the inter-Korean relations are positive, the production inducement effect is about 308 billion won, the value-added effect is about 102.8 billion won, the import inducement effect is 44.8 billion won, and the employment inducement effect is 899 is a person On the other hand, in the negative case, the production inducement effect is 0.73 billion won, the value-added effect is 0.24 billion won, the import inducement effect is 0.11 billion won, and the employment inducement effect is 0 people.