한국과 일본 여성청년실업의 출산탄력성 분석

An Analysis of Fertility Elasticity of Female Youth Unemployment in Korea and Japan

Purpose: This study compared the effects of youth unemployment on fertility in Korea and Japan. Specifically, the analysis aims to find out the income effect and substitution effect by estimating the fertility rate elasticity of the female youth unemployment rate. Research design, data, and methodology: This study first reviews existing studies on factors that affect the fertility rate. Next, we look at the youth labor force structure and youth unemployment rate trends in Korea and Japan. The fertility rate elasticity of the female youth unemployment rate is analyzed through empirical analysis. In particular, this study focuses on estimating the effect of the unemployment rate of 15-24 year old female youth on the fertility rate in Korea and Japan. The analysis period was from 1991 to 2020. For the analysis data, OECD data were mainly used, and data were supplemented by the Statistics Bureau of Korea and the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan. The analysis method technically analyzes the youth labor force structure and youth unemployment rate trends in Korea and Japan, and estimates the effect of the female youth unemployment rate on the fertility rate in both countries. Specifically, the simple linear (OLS) model was regression-analyzed using the R program. Results: In Korea and Japan, it was found that whenever the youth unemployment rate increased, it had a negative (-) effect on the fertility rate. The fertility elasticity of female youth unemployment is less than 1 in both countries, but it is twice as large in Japan as in Korea. When unemployment of young women increases, income decreases and the fertility rate falls, so the income effect appears to have a relatively large effect. Implications: Both Korea and Japan will need to focus their policy efforts on solving female youth unemployment in order to raise the fertility rate. In Korea, the fertility elasticity of youth unemployment is lower than that in Japan, so it is estimated that the fertility rate is relatively affected by factors other than the youth unemployment rate compared to Japan. Therefore, it is expected that other factors, such as economic stimulus and institutional improvement, can improve the fertility rate in Korea.