도쿄 특별구의 인구 유입과 유출 분석

Analysis of Net Inflow and Outflow of the population in Tokyo Special Wards

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to analyze the factors of inflow and outflow of the population in Tokyo special wards. 11% of Japanese population is focused in Tokyo and 70% of Tokyo citizens are living in Tokyo special wards. These days, the population inflow which causes an increase in the population of Tokyo special wards is larger than outflow. In this point, it is meaningful to analyze net inflow and outflow of the population in Tokyo special wards. Research design, data, and methodology: In this research, the setting of variables which represent the circumstance of Tokyo special wards is important. Because the result of research depends on the variable setting. The variables are set to indicate the economic and social factors. Also, It is considered that external diseconomies such as increased land values and housing cost are resulted from the unbalance of supply and demand caused by continuous population inflow. Results: First, the population density is the strongest variable on inflow and outflow of the population. Inflow and outflow of the population is mostly prompted by young people. Second, outflow of the population is mainly caused by the age group between 25 and 39 in which people usually care their children. Third, the social factors affect outflow of population more than the economic factors do. Fourth, the average land value is one of the factor in population change. Inflow and outflow of the population in special wards are mainly caused by young people affected from economic and social factors. Population inflow is caused from the cities in metropolitan area where the people tend to move into Tokyo special wards. Implications: Population density is the main factor of inflow and outflow of the population. The fact that population moving is largely prompted by young people and especially women lead to meaningful results. Comparing to non-capital area, lots of universities, major companies, regular working positions, service businesses are located in metropolitan area, and those are act as factors of movement of population. Most of all, people from non-capital area are flowing into Tokyo special wards to broaden their opportunity of university and job.