제주지역경기종합지수 개발에 관한 연구

A Study on Developing Jeju Regional Coincident Economic Indicator

The purpose of this study is to develop the Stock and Watson-type regional coincident economic indicator(DFM_IDX) using dynamic factor model and to compare NBER-type coincident composite index(JDI_IDX) developed by Jeju Development Institute(JDI) in 2003. In developing JDI_IDX six indicators - industrial production index, amount of electricity used(residence), number of tourist, sale of large discount store(real), income from agricultural products(real) and number of employees in non-farm household - are selected after conformity inspection and simulation. The combination of those six indicators represents the current business conditions of Jeju. Even though the principal component analysis supports the validity of using six indicators in developing coincident composite index we calculate a DFM_IDX using four indicators such as - amount of electricity used(residence), number of tourist, sale of large discount store(real) and number of employees in non-farm household - since six indicators are cointegrated. The most important variable reflecting the economic condition of Jeju is the number of tourist. To investigate differences and similarities of two different types of indicators we consider correlation coefficient as well as cyclical components. Two different types of indicator produce very similar results except some periods between 2005 and 2006. This finding implies that the probability model is a useful tool in developing regional economic indicators.