부동산정책이 주택가격에 미치는 효과에 관한 실증적 연구: 마코프 국면전환모형을 이용한

An Empirical Study on the Effect of Real Estate Policy on Housing Price Using a Regime Switching Regression Model

the Markov regime switching model. As a result of the analysis, it could be captured that variables significantly affect on real estate prices in each regime. First, it was found that during the boom, the policy to strengthen real estate regulations did not have an effective influence on stabilizing the housing sales market. Second, it was found that deregulation and strengthening policies had an effective effect on each market during the recession and boom of the jeonse market. Third, ρ11 and ρ22, which are the probabilities of the transition, show a phase of recession and boom, respectively, and the real estate market is all more likely to maintain the recession. Third, ρ11 and ρ22, which are the probabilities of the transition, represent the phase of recession and boom, respectively. ρ11 is larger than ρ22, so the housing sales, jeonse, and land markets are more likely to maintain the recession. This shows the characteristics of asymmetry and phase persistence of real estate price volatility. Therefore, there is a need to closely monitor the effectiveness of each policy means for each phase, develop and apply a prediction and evaluation simulation model.