세미나 2 : 한국과 FTA 추진국가간의 무역구조에 관한 연구

A Study on the Trade Structure among Korea and FTA Negotiating Countries

세계 대다수의 국가가 추진하고 있는 지역통합체인 FTA를 늦게나마 시작한 한국은 ``FTA 추진로드맵``에 계획대로 동시다발적인 협상노력을 하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 향후 FTA 협정타결에 앞서 국가 간에 무역구조를 분석하여 협정이후의 파급효과를 다음과 같이 예측해 보았다. 국제무역매트릭스를 이용하여 국제교역계수를 분석한 결과 지리적으로 인접한 한국·중국·일본 등이 캐나다, 멕시코, 인도 등과 비교하여 국제교역계수가 높게 나타났다. 세부적인 국가 간 국제유발계수 분석에서는 중국과 일본 간에 국제무역 유발계수가 높게 나타났고 캐나다, 멕시코와 인도는 낮게 나타나 한국의 수출이 이들 국가들의 수출증가에 별로 영향을 주지 못하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 무역결합도 분석결과 수출결합도와 수입결합도가 일본 및 중국과 1보다 큰 값을 가져 결속관계가 높음을 알 수 있었고 다른 국가들과는 낮은 결속관계를 가지고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.

This study inquired into trading structure between states in advance of future FTA agreement conclusion, and predicted the aftereffects after the agreement as follows. First, Korea and Japan are competitive in staple export items, and China in vertical division of labor, has a structure to largely indicate static effect in FTA conclusion. Due to mutual supplementary structure with India, Mexico, and Canada, it is expected to increase trading volume after FTA conclusion. Second, as a result of analyzing international trading coefficient using international trading matrix, the international trading coefficient was indicated high in Korea, China and Japan compared to Canada, Mexico and India and the like. That Korean value was indicated high irrelevant to the size of general economic scale was found that the rise of one unit in Korean export brings out trading inducement effect on the trading of Canada, Mexico, India, China and Japan. Third, at the international inducement coefficient analysis between detailed states, that between China and Japan was indicated high, and that between Canada, Mexico and India was low, which was found that Korea`s outbound export has little effect on export increase among these states. Fourth, as a result of trading matrix, Korea brought out value larger than one compared to those of Japan and China, found to have high bonding relation with them, but low boding relation with other states. In the future, Korea has kept a very close trading relation with Japan and China among FTA promoting states, so to increase trading volume and international trading inducement effect between mutual parties, it should be able to expand mutual trading through FTA conclusion. Also with Canada, Mexico and India of relatively low trading associating relation, it should pursue the profits of FTA conclusion through industrial specialization than comprehensive result.