체제전환국 경제개혁의 성장률 효과 분석

Transition economies suffer from a variety of obstacles to economic growth, ranging from inadequate financial intermediation to inefficient state enterprises; inadequate or antiquated infrastructure; workers who are poorly trained, equipped, and motivated; lack of access to modern technology and methods of production and distribution; and lack of information about market conditions at home and abroad. The faster economic growth of Mongolia also is hampered by the inadequate financial institutions hobbled by government ownership, inefficient physical and human capital, together with inadequate savings discouraged by the low return on investment and the hazards of a rickety banking system. This paper approaches these issues through supply-side growth model by calibrating a western style production function to Mongolian economy, assuming that both labor force and capital stock are used inefficiently relative to western standards. Removing these inefficiency by privatization and reform can be expected to raise total factor productivity and thus the growth of output. The ensuing faster growth should encourage both domestic private saving and foreign capital inflow with substantial additional benefits in the form of increased capital, improved efficiency, and better access to foreign markets. However, failure to adopt these reforms can be expected to leave the Mongolian economy hampered by all of these problems and stagnating with slow growth.