국내 배추 재배면적에 수입 김치가 미치는 영향 분석

This study aims to identify the impact on chinese cabbage import and the area of local chinese cabbage cultivation when chinese cabbage prices fluctuate due to unstable supplies from unusual weather patterns. For this purpose, the study analyzes monthly data of chinese cabbage cultivation areas, chinese cabbage prices, and chinese cabbage import amount by using a SVAR model, which is useful to describe co-relations of variables—regardless of endogenous or exogenous variables. The analysis result shows that an increase in kimchi import from China decreases chinese cabbage prices and cultivation areas. Notably, the decrease in cultivation areas continues for more than ten months. Besides, our research finds that a sharp rise in local chinese cabbage prices from unusual summer weather conditions increases kimchi import and, as a result, shrinks local chinese cabbage prices and cultivation areas. The reduced local cabbage market causes a rise in chinese cabbage prices when unusual weather patterns occur, forming a vicious cycle. Therefore, instead of passive policies, such as production stabilization and stockpiling, the government should shift to proactive measures by expanding new cultivation areas, especially from August to October, and pursuing overseas investment in a limited scope to secure stable kimchi supply.