국제옥수수가격과 환율이 국내 사료업체 주가에 미치는 영향 분석

Analysis on the Impact of International Corn Price and Exchange Rate Changes on Feed Company Stock Prices

Recently, as international corn price continues to rise it is burdensome for the domestic food industry and feed industry. The feed industry already raised the feed prices by more than 10% in the beginning of this year and is discussing additional price increases. The higher corn price levels and increased volatility could affect not only the profitability of livestock farms, but also feed companies and stock market investors through the impacts on the equity prices. This study determines the effects of the price of corn futures on the stock prices of feed companies in Korea by using the multivariate GARCH-in-mean models. The model also includes the exchange rate to see if the market consider the exchange rate shock differently from that of the corn price. The results show that corn price and exchange rate have statistically significant impacts on the stock prices, which should be a good reason to increase the feed prices. It is also revealed that the size and path of impacts of the corn price and the exchange rate are different, suggesting separate hedge plans for the feed companies for the two micro and macro shocks.